Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies 2016

Die drei wichtigsten Trends, die Unternehmen zum Gewinn von Wettbewerbsvorteilen beachten müssen.

Bericht zum Hype Cycle 2016 beruht auf einer Analyse von mehr als 2.000 Technologien.

Das IT und Research Beratungsunternehmen Gartner hat den aktuellen Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies für das Jahr 2016 veröffentlicht. Der Bericht zeigt drei Technologie-Trends auf, die für Unternehmen in einem Umfeld schneller digitaler Innovation höchste Priorität haben werden.

Zu den drei übergreifenden Technologie-Trends zählen transparente und lebensechte Erfahrungen, das Zeitalter der smarten Maschinen und die Plattform-Revolution.

»Der Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies ist einzigartig, da er Kenntnisse zu mehr als 2.000 Technologien in ein prägnantes Set an Zukunftstechnologien und Trends zusammenfasst, die die größte potenzielle Einzelwirkung auf die strategische Planung von Unternehmen haben werden«, sagt Mike J. Walker, Research Director bei Gartner. »Dieser Hype Cycle stellt die Technologien in den Mittelpunkt, die als besonders vielversprechend gelten, weil sie Unternehmen ein Höchstmaß an Wettbewerbsvorteilen über die nächsten fünf bis zehn Jahre bieten.«

grafik gartner hype cycle juli 2016

 Figure 1. Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2016

Source: Gartner (August 2016)


Gartner's 2016 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies Identifies Three Key Trends That Organisations Must Track to Gain Competitive Advantage

2016 Hype Cycle Special Report Distils Insight From More Than 2,000 Technologies

STAMFORD, Conn., 16 August, 2016 — The technologies on Gartner Inc.'s Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2016 reveal three distinct technology trends that are poised to be of the highest priority for organisations facing rapidly accelerating digital business innovation.

Transparently immersive experiences, the perceptual smart machine age, and the platform revolution are the three overarching technology trends that create new experiences with unrivalled intelligence and offer platforms that allow organisations to connect with new business ecosystems.

The Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies report is the longest-running annual Gartner Hype Cycle, providing a cross-industry perspective on the technologies and trends that business strategists, chief innovation officers, R&D leaders, entrepreneurs, global market developers and emerging-technology teams should consider in developing emerging-technology portfolios.

»The Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies is unique among most Hype Cycles because it distils insights from more than 2,000 technologies into a succinct set of must-know emerging technologies and trends that will have the single greatest impact on an organisation's strategic planning,« said Mike J. Walker, research director at Gartner. »This Hype Cycle specifically focuses on the set of technologies that is showing promise in delivering a high degree of competitive advantage over the next five to 10 years (see Figure 1).«

»To thrive in the digital economy, enterprise architects must continue to work with their CIOs and business leaders to proactively discover emerging technologies that will enable transformational business models for competitive advantage, maximise value through reduction of operating costs, and overcome legal and regulatory hurdles,« said Mr Walker. »This Hype Cycle provides a high-level view of important emerging trends that organisations must track, as well as the specific technologies that must be monitored.«

Key Technology Trends

Transparently immersive experiences: Technology will continue to become more human-centric to the point where it will introduce transparency between people, businesses and things. This relationship will become much more entwined as the evolution of technology becomes more adaptive, contextual and fluid within the workplace, at home, and interacting with businesses and other people.

Critical technologies to be considered include 4D Printing, Brain-Computer Interface, Human Augmentation, Volumetric Displays, Affective Computing, Connected Home, Nanotube Electronics, Augmented Reality, Virtual Reality and Gesture Control Devices.

The perceptual smart machine age: Smart machine technologies will be the most disruptive class of technologies over the next 10 years due to radical computational power, near-endless amounts of data, and unprecedented advances in deep neural networks that will allow organisations with smart machine technologies to harness data in order to adapt to new situations and solve problems that no one has encountered previously. Organisations that are exploring this area should consider the following technologies: Smart Dust, Machine Learning, Virtual Personal Assistants, Cognitive Expert Advisors, Smart Data Discovery, Smart Workspace, Conversational User Interfaces, Smart Robots, Commercial UAVs (Drones), Autonomous Vehicles, Natural-Language Question Answering, Personal Analytics, Enterprise Taxonomy and Ontology Management, Data Broker PaaS , and Context Brokering.

 The platform revolution: Emerging technologies are revolutionising the concepts of how platforms are defined and used. The shift from technical infrastructure to ecosystem-enabling platforms is laying the foundations for entirely new business models that are forming the bridge between humans and technology. Within these dynamic ecosystems, organisations must proactively understand and redefine their strategy to create platform-based business models, and to exploit internal and external algorithms in order to generate value. Key platform-enabling technologies to track include Neuromorphic Hardware, Quantum Computing, Blockchain, IoT Platform, Software-Defined Security and Software-Defined Anything.

»These trends illustrate that the more organisations are able to make technology an integral part of their employees', partners' and customers' experience, the more they will be able to connect their ecosystems to platforms in new and dynamic ways,« said Mr Walker. »Also, as smart machine technologies continue to evolve, they will become part of the human experience and the digital business ecosystem.«

Gartner clients can read more in the report »Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2016.« This report is part of Gartner's Hype Cycle Special Report for 2016. This Special Report provides strategists and planners with an assessment of the market hype, maturity, business benefit and future direction of more than 2,000 technologies, grouped into 11 topic areas. Learn more in the complimentary webinar »Gartner Hype Cycles 2016: Major Trends and Emerging Technologies.”

Technology Hype

When new technologies make bold promises, how do you discern the hype from what's commercially viable? And when will such claims pay off, if at all? Gartner Hype Cycles provide a graphic representation of the maturity and adoption of technologies and applications, and how they are potentially relevant to solving real business problems and exploiting new opportunities. Gartner Hype Cycle methodology gives you a view of how a technology or application will evolve over time, providing a sound source of insight to manage its deployment within the context of your specific business goals.

grafik gartner hype cycle general

Each Hype Cycle drills down into the five key phases of a technology's life cycle. Roll over the phases in the graphic above for more information.

How Do You Use Hype Cycles?

Clients use Hype Cycles to get educated about the promise of an emerging technology within the context of their industry and individual appetite for risk.

Should you make an early move? If you're willing to combine risk taking with an understanding that risky investments don't always pay off, you could reap the rewards of early adoption.

Is a moderate approach appropriate? Executives who are more moderate understand the argument for an early investment but will also insist on a sound cost/benefit analysis when new ways of doing things are not yet fully proven.

Should you wait for further maturation? If there are too many unanswered questions around the commercial viability of an emerging technology, it may be better to wait until others have been able to deliver tangible value.

How Do Hype Cycles Work?

Each Hype Cycle drills down into the five key phases of a technology's life cycle.

Technology Trigger: A potential technology breakthrough kicks things off. Early proof-of-concept stories and media interest trigger significant publicity. Often no usable products exist and commercial viability is unproven.

Peak of Inflated Expectations: Early publicity produces a number of success stories — often accompanied by scores of failures. Some companies take action; many do not.

Trough of Disillusionment: Interest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver. Producers of the technology shake out or fail. Investments continue only if the surviving providers improve their products to the satisfaction of early adopters.

Slope of Enlightenment: More instances of how the technology can benefit the enterprise start to crystallize and become more widely understood. Second- and third-generation products appear from technology providers. More enterprises fund pilots; conservative companies remain cautious.

Plateau of Productivity: Mainstream adoption starts to take off. Criteria for assessing provider viability are more clearly defined. The technology's broad market applicability and relevance are clearly paying off.


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