Die Ausgaben für IT in Europa werden 2018 auf eine Billion US-Dollar ansteigen – das entspricht einem Anstieg von 4,9 Prozent gegenüber den geschätzten Ausgaben von 974 Milliarden US-Dollar im Jahr 2017, so die neueste Prognose des IT-Research- und Beratungsunternehmens Gartner. Im Jahr 2017 lagen demnach alle Kategorien der IT-Ausgaben in EMEA unter den globalen Durchschnittswerten. Währungseffekte spielten bei dieser schwachen Performance eine große Rolle und machen sich ebenfalls bei der Prognose für 2018 bemerkbar.
»UK ist der größte IT-Markt in EMEA und die Abnahme um 3,1 Prozent in 2017 beeinflusst die Prognose sehr,« so John-David Lovelock, Reserach Vice President bei Gartner. »Das schwache britische Pfund und politische Unsicherheiten im Zusammenhang mit dem Brexit haben die IT-Ausgaben in UK im Jahr 2017 abgeschwächt, während andere große IT-Märkte in EMEA ein ständiges Wachstum verzeichnen.«
Gartner Says IT Spending in EMEA to Exceed $1 Trillion in 2018, Up 4.9 Per Cent from 2017
Analysts Discuss the Outlook for the EMEA IT Market During Gartner Symposium/ITxpo 2017, 5-9 November, in Barcelona
Barcelona, Spain, 8th November, 2017 — IT spending in EMEA is projected to total $1.0 trillion in 2018, an increase of 4.9 per cent from estimated spending of $974 billion in 2017, according to the latest forecast by Gartner, Inc.
In 2017, however, all categories of IT spending in EMEA underperformed global averages (see Table 1). Currency effects played a big part in the weakness in 2017, and will also contribute to the strength forecast in 2018.
Table 1. EMEA IT Spending Forecast (Billions of US Dollars)
|2017 Spending||2017 Growth ( %)||2018 Spending||2018 Growth ( %)|
|Data Centre Systems||44,497||1.1||45,890||3.1|
Source: Gartner (November 2017)
Gartner analysts are discussing the underlying trends that are driving IT spending patterns this week during the Gartner Symposium/ITxpo taking place in Barcelona through Thursday.
»The UK has EMEA’s largest IT market and its decline of 3.1 per cent in 2017 impacts the forecast heavily,« said John-David Lovelock, research vice president at Gartner. »Weak Sterling and political uncertainty since Brexit are reducing UK IT spending in 2017, while other major IT markets in EMEA grew steadily.«
Another significant currency effect is the rapid appreciation of the Euro against the US Dollar— it provides an incentive for Eurozone countries to defer IT spending to 2018 where possible, in anticipation of even lower prices in US Dollars.
»However, there is more to the recovery in 2018 than just currency effects,« added Mr Lovelock. »Strong demand in the enterprise software and IT services categories across EMEA hint at significant shifts in IT spending patterns.«
»The forecast highlights that businesses are broadly reducing spending on owning IT hardware, and increasing spending on consuming IT as-a-service,« said Mr Lovelock. »In the total IT forecast the business trends are masked somewhat by consumer spending, but when we look at enterprise-only spending the new dynamics between the categories are much clearer.«
Significant Shifts in Enterprise IT Spending
EMEA enterprise IT spending* in 2017 was weaker than the overall IT spending forecast, declining 1.4 per cent. The only category predicted to show enterprise spending growth in 2017 is the enterprise software market at 3.2 per cent.
»In 2017, we’re seeing a pause in EMEA enterprise spending due to the switch to as-a-service offerings gaining momentum,« said Mr Lovelock. »Among the spending rebounds in 2018, however, we expect lagging markets. The data centre, devices and communication services categories are all on pace to decline 3 per cent or more in 2017. Despite improvements in 2018, spending on servers, storage, network equipment, printers, PCs, mobile devices — and even hardware support — won’t recover to 2016 levels.«
In 2018, total enterprise spending in EMEA is on pace to grow 2.8 per cent. All categories of enterprise IT spending will return to growth in 2018, but only IT services and software will grow strongly at 4 per cent and 7.6 per cent, respectively. Enterprise spending on devices and communications services continue to fall behind in 2018, growing at 2 per cent or lower, thus failing to recoup the losses of 2017.
Gartner’s recent public cloud forecast further underlines this change in spending as businesses increasingly adopt cloud models for efficiency and agility. In doing so, they also shift their IT spending toward operational expenditure (opex) service-based models.
»The move to cloud services and opex spending on IT should serve to stabilise the growth in overall IT spending in EMEA in 2018 and beyond. We expect spending will spread out more evenly with fewer spikes of capital investment on hardware,« said Mr Lovelock. »In both enterprise and overall IT spending forecasts, worldwide and in EMEA, we forecast IT spending from 2019 through 2021 will remain close to a 3 per cent growth rate each year.«
More analysis on the outlook for the IT industry is available in the complimentary on-demand webinar »IT Spending 3Q17 Update: Top 10 IT Markets Strategic Planners Must Track in 2018.« During the webinar, Gartner analysts discuss the full IT spending forecast and details on the top 10 IT markets strategic planners must track in 2018.
Gartner’s IT spending forecast methodology relies heavily on rigorous analysis of sales by thousands of vendors across the entire range of IT products and services. Gartner uses primary research techniques, complemented by secondary research sources, to build a comprehensive database of market size data on which to base its forecast.
The Gartner quarterly IT spending forecast delivers a unique perspective on IT spending across the hardware, software, IT services and telecommunications segments. These reports help Gartner clients understand market opportunities and challenges. The most recent IT spending forecast research is available at Gartner Worldwide Spending Forecast. This quarterly IT Spending Forecast page includes links to the latest IT spending reports, webinars, blog posts and press releases.
*Gartner’s enterprise IT spending forecast looks at IT spending across 11 key industry verticals and across 21 spending categories. It does not include consumer spending on technology or services like the overall IT spending forecast.
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