Die weltweiten Investitionsausgaben in Halbleiter sollen 2016 um 4,7 Prozent auf 59,4 Milliarden US-Dollar sinken, so eine aktuelle Prognose des IT Research- und Beratungsunternehmens Gartner. In der Prognose des letzten Quartals wurde noch von einem Wachstum von 3,3 Prozent ausgegangen.
Gartner Says Worldwide Semiconductor Capital Spending to Decline 4.7 Per Cent in 2016
Worldwide semiconductor capital spending is projected to decline 4.7 per cent in 2016, to $59.4 billion, according to Gartner, Inc. (see Table 1). This is down from the 3.3 per cent growth predicted in Gartner’s previous quarter’s forecast.
„The 2016 outlook for the semiconductor manufacturing equipment market reflects a bleaker outlook for end-user electronics demand and the world economic environment,“ said David Christensen, senior research analyst at Gartner. „Capital investment policies of leading semiconductor vendors have remained cautious against the background of sluggish electronics demand. However, the long-term outlook shows a return to growth, although the wafer-level manufacturing equipment market is expected to enter a gentle down cycle in 2016 due to the loss of the supply and demand balance in the DRAM market.“
Worldwide Semiconductor Capital Spending and Equipment Spending Forecast, 2014-2018 (Millions of Dollars)
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | |
| Semiconductor Capital Spending ($M) |
64,569.5 |
62,291.3 |
59,360.8 |
63,622.1 |
69,182.0 |
| Growth (%) | 11.6 | -3.5 | -4.7 | 7.2 | 8.7 |
| Wafer-Level Manufacturing Equipment ($M) |
33,684.1 |
33,713.2 |
32,903.2 |
35,699.0 |
39,129.1 |
| Growth (%) | 16.2 | 0.1 | -2.4 | 8.5 | 9.6 |
| Wafer Fab Equipment ($M) | 31,953.0 | 31,906.5 | 31,097.6 | 33,630.3 | 36,689.8 |
| Growth (%) | 16.3 | -0.1 | -2.5 | 8.1 | 9.1 |
| Wafer-Level Packaging and Assembly Equipment ($M) |
1,731.1 |
1,806.7 |
1,805.6 |
2,068.7 |
2,439.2 |
| Growth (%) | 14.3 | 4.4 | -0.1 | 14.6 | 17.9 |
Source: Gartner (January 2016)
2016 spending on wafer-level manufacturing equipment is forecast to decline 2.4 per cent. Within the forecast, different segments are expected to fare differently in response to varying end-market conditions. For example, the lithography segment will grow 1.4 per cent, while the etch, clean and planarisation equipment markets in 2016 are expected to decline 2.9 per cent. The deposition equipment segment will improve slightly in 2016 with a 3.2 per cent decline. Beyond 2016, the market turns positive, with relatively strong growth forecast through 2018.