Die am häufigsten verwendete Form wird die Hybrid-Cloud sein.
Laut einer Prognose wird es im Jahr 2020 für Unternehmen genauso unüblich sein, eine überbetriebliche »No-Cloud«-Strategie einzusetzen, wie es heute selten ist, eine »No-Internet«-Strategie anzuwenden. Nach Gartner werden »Cloud-first«- oder gar »Cloud-only«-Methoden die defensive Haltung gegenüber der Cloud ersetzen, die die meisten Anbieter in den letzten Jahren verfolgten. Heutzutage sind die meisten Technologie-Innovationen der Anbieter cloud-zentriert, mit der erklärten Absicht, die Technologie zu On-premise-Lösungen nachzurüsten.
»Abgesehen davon, dass viele Organisationen, die eine »No-Cloud«-Strategie verfolgen, eigentlich aus unvermeidlichen Gründen oder ohne viel Aufmerksamkeit die Cloud benutzen, glauben wir, dass diese Position immer weniger haltbar sein wird«, erläuterte Jeffrey Mann, Research Vice President bei Gartner. »Die Cloud wird zunehmend als Standardoption für die Software-Entwicklung fungieren. Genauso verhält es sich mit kundenspezifischer Software, die vor allem dafür entworfen wurde, um einen Wechsel zwischen öffentlicher und privater Cloud zu ermöglichen.«
Gartner Says By 2020, a Corporate »No-Cloud« Policy Will Be as Rare as a »No-Internet« Policy Is Today
Hybrid Will Be the Most Common Use of the Cloud
By 2020, a corporate »no-cloud« policy will be as rare as a »no-internet« policy is today, according to Gartner, Inc. Cloud-first, and even cloud-only, is replacing the defensive no-cloud stance that dominated many large providers in recent years. Today, most provider technology innovation is cloud-centric, with the stated intent of retrofitting the technology to on-premises.
»Aside from the fact that many organisations with a no-cloud policy actually have some under-the-radar or unavoidable cloud usage, we believe that this position will become increasingly untenable,« said Jeffrey Mann, research vice president at Gartner. »Cloud will increasingly be the default option for software deployment. The same is true for custom software, which increasingly is designed for some variation of public or private cloud.«
This does not mean that everything will be cloud-based, and concern will remain valid in some cases. However, the extreme of having nothing cloud-based will largely disappear. Hybrid will be the most common usage of the cloud — but this will require public cloud to be part of the overall strategy. Technology providers will increasingly be able to assume that their customers will be able to consume cloud capabilities.
Gartner made a number of further predictions, including:
- By 2019, more than 30 per cent of the 100 largest vendors‘ new software investments will have shifted from cloud-first to cloud-only.
- The now well-established stance of cloud-first in software design and planning is gradually being augmented or replaced by cloud-only. This also applies to private and hybrid cloud scenarios.
»More leading-edge IT capabilities will be available only in the cloud, forcing reluctant organisations closer to cloud adoption. While some applications and data will remain locked in older technologies, more new solutions will be cloud-based, thus further increasing demand for integration infrastructure,« said Yefim V. Natis, vice president and Gartner Fellow. »Rigid organisations cannot produce agile IT solutions. As delivery shifts more to the cloud, most IT organisations will have to reorganise to reflect the business realities of cloud computing: continuous innovation and change, pervasive integration, competing with cloud providers for some initiatives, and crucial prevalence of influence over control in IT’s relationship with lines of business. While historically the greatest competitor to external service providers has been internal IT, with spend shifts, structural reorganisations and the business realities mentioned above, cloud providers will be in the position to gain the upper hand.«
- By 2020, more compute power will have been sold by IaaS and PaaS cloud providers than sold and deployed into enterprise data centres.
- The Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) market has been growing more than 40 per cent in revenue per year since 2011, and it is projected to continue to grow more than 25 per cent per year through 2019.
- By 2019, the majority of virtual machines will be delivered by IaaS providers. By 2020, the revenue for compute IaaS and Platform as a Service (PaaS) will exceed $55 billion — and likely pass the revenue for servers.
»With the growth of both bimodal computing and cloud provider offerings, software-defined enterprise data centres have become less centrally important than building a strong multiprovider management capability,« explained Thomas J. Bittman, vice president and distinguished analyst at Gartner. »Unless very small, most businesses will continue to have an on-premises (or hosted) data centre capability. But with most compute power moving to IaaS providers, organisations and vendors need to focus on managing and leveraging the hybrid combination of on-premises, off-premises, cloud and non-cloud architectures, with a focus on managing cloud-delivered capacity efficiently and effectively.«
Additional information is available to Gartner clients in the report »Market Insight: Cloud Computing’s Drive to Digital Business Creates Opportunities for Providers.« https://www.gartner.com/login/loginInitAction.do?method=initialize&TARGET=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.gartner.com%2Fdocument%2F3328028
Gartner analysts will provide additional analysis and information on the outlook for the cloud market at the Gartner Data Center Infrastructure & Operations Management Conference 2016, 28-29 November in London and 5-8 December in Las Vegas. Follow news and updates from these events on Twitter using #GartnerDC.