Neue innovative Geräte können die konventionellen Verkaufszahlen steigern.
Laut Angaben des IT-Research und Beratungsunternehmens Gartner werden die weltweiten Verkaufszahlen für PCs, Tablets, ultramobile Geräte und Mobiltelefone im Jahr 2017 vorrausichtlich unverändert bleiben. Gartner prognostiziert, dass die weltweiten Verkaufszahlen für diese Geräte 2017 die Summe von 2,3 Milliarden Stück erreichen – dies entspricht auch den Prognosen von 2016.
»Der weltweite Markt für Endgeräte stagniert. Die Verkaufszahlen für Mobiltelefone steigen nur in den aufstrebenden Asia/Pazifik-Märkten und der PC-Markt erreichte unlängst den Tiefpunkt seines Rückgangs,« erläutert Ranjit Atwal, Research Director bei Gartner.
Gartner Forecasts Flat Worldwide Device Shipments Until 2018
Emerging Devices Can Enhance Conventional Device Sales
Worldwide combined shipments of PCs, tablets, ultramobiles and mobile phones are projected to remain flat in 2017, according to Gartner, Inc. Worldwide shipments for these devices are projected to total 2.3 billion in 2017, the same as 2016 estimates.
There were nearly 7 billion phones, tablets and PCs in use in the world by the end of 2016. However, Gartner does not expect any growth in shipments of traditional devices until 2018, when a small increase in ultramobiles and mobile phone shipments is expected (see Table 1).
»The global devices market is stagnating. Mobile phone shipments are only growing in emerging Asia/Pacific markets, and the PC market is just reaching the bottom of its decline,« said Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner.
»As well as declining shipment growth for traditional devices, average selling prices are also beginning to stagnate because of market saturation and a slower rate of innovation,« added Mr Atwal. »Consumers have fewer reasons to upgrade or buy traditional devices (see Table 1). They are seeking fresher experiences and applications in emerging categories such as head mounted displays (HMDs), virtual personal assistant (VPA) speakers and wearables.«
Worldwide Devices Shipments by Device Type, 2016-2019 (Millions of Units)
| Device Type | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
| Traditional PCs (Desk-Based and Notebook) | 219 | 205 | 198 | 193 |
| Ultramobiles (Premium) | 49 | 61 | 74 | 85 |
| PC Market | 268 | 266 | 272 | 278 |
| Ultramobiles (Basic and Utility) | 168 | 165 | 166 | 166 |
| Computing Devices Market | 436 | 432 | 438 | 444 |
| Mobile Phones | 1,888 | 1,893 | 1,920 | 1,937 |
| Total Devices Market | 2,324 | 2,324 | 2,357 | 2,380 |
Note: The Ultramobile (Premium) category includes devices such as Microsoft Windows 10 Intel x86 products and Apple MacBook Air.
The Ultramobile (Basic and Utility Tablets) category includes devices such as Apple iPad and iPad mini, Samsung Galaxy Tab S2, Amazon Fire HD, Lenovo Yoga Tab 3, and Acer Iconia One.
Source: Gartner (January 2017)
The embattled PC market will benefit from a replacement cycle toward the end of this forecast period, returning to growth in 2018. Increasingly, attractive premium ultramobile prices and functionality will entice buyers as traditional PC sales continue to decline. The mobile phone market will also benefit from replacements. There is, however, a difference in replacement activity between mature and emerging markets. »People in emerging markets still see smartphones as their main computing device and replace them more regularly than mature markets,« said Mr Atwal.
Device vendors are increasingly trying to move into faster-growing emerging device categories. »This requires a shift from a hardware-focused approach to a richer value-added service approach,« said Mr Atwal. »As service-led approaches become even more crucial, hardware providers will have to partner with service providers, as they lack the expertise to deliver the service offerings themselves.«
More detailed analysis is available to clients in the report »Forecast: PCs, Ultramobiles and Mobile Phones, Worldwide, 2013-2020, 4Q16 Update.«
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