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Laut dem Research- und Beratungsunternehmen Gartner werden bis 2030 80 Prozent der etablierten Finanzdienstleister verschwinden, übernommen werden oder ihre Wettbewerbsfähigkeit verloren haben. Diese Firmen werden mit weltweiten Digitalplattformen, Fintech-Unternehmen und anderen nicht-etablierten Playern um einen größeren Marktanteil konkurrieren. Dabei werden sie mit Hilfe von Technologie die Wirtschaft und Geschäftsmodelle verändern.
So werden Banken, die an Geschäftsmodellen des 20. Jahrhunderts festhalten, ein wachsendes Risiko haben zu scheitern haben, mein Gartner Vice President und Distinguished Analyst David Furlonger. »Die digitale Transformation bleibt ein Mythos, solange sich institutionelle Einstellungen, Prozesse und Strukturen nicht ändern«, so Furlonger. »Etablierte Finanzdienstleister müssen schneller digital werden, indem sie digitale Plattformen schaffen oder Nischenprodukte und -services auf anderen Plattformen verkaufen.«
Laut Gartner werden nur 20 Prozent der etablierten Unternehmen überleben, dabei vor allem drei Typen:
- Power-Law-Firmen besitzen eine eigene digitale Plattform und nutzen sie, um aus Kundeninformationen neue Services zu entwickeln und neue Märkte zu erschließen. Nur rund fünf Prozent der besten Unternehmen haben das Potenzial zur Power-Law-Firma.
- Fintechs sind spezialisierte »Pure-Player«, die traditionelle Finanzdienstleister in ausgewählten Produktbereichen ablösen werden. Fintechs nutzen digitale Plattformen, besitzen sie jedoch nicht. Weniger als 15 Prozent der etablierten Finanzunternehmen werden sich zu Fintechs wandeln oder abspalten.
- Long-Tail-Firmen: Digitale Plattformen sorgen für niedrigere Kosten, das ermöglicht es einigen traditionellen Anbietern, als Service Broker aufzutreten. Das ist wahrscheinlich für große Bevölkerungsgruppen von Armen und Arbeitern auf der ganzen Welt, die bisher keine profitablen Kunden waren. Gleichzeitig können sie als Concierge-Anbieter von gebündelten Leistungen für vermögende Privatpersonen auftreten. Rund 80 Prozent der erfolgreichen traditionellen Finanzdienstleister können zu Long-Tail-Unternehmen werden.
Gartner Says Digitalisation Will Make Most Heritage Financial Firms Irrelevant by 2030
By 2030, 80 per cent of heritage financial services firms will go out of business, become commoditised or exist only formally but not competing effectively, according to Gartner, Inc. These firms will struggle for relevance as global digital platforms, fintech companies and other non-traditional players gain greater market share, using technology to change the economics and business models of the industry.
Speaking at Gartner Symposium/ITxpo 2018 on the Gold Coast, Australia today, David Furlonger, vice president and distinguished analyst at Gartner said banks face a growing risk of failure if they continue to maintain 20th century business and operating models.
»Digital transformation is largely a myth as institutional mindsets, processes and structures stand firm,” said Mr Furlonger. »Established financial services providers will have to move faster on digital business by building digital platforms or finding niche products and services to sell on others’ platforms.”
According to Gartner’s 2018 CEO survey, while financial services CEOs continue to prioritise revenue growth, there has been a clear shift toward emphasizing efficiency and productivity improvements and the importance of management as growth levers. This shift indicates that digital business is predominantly a channel and transaction automation play, focused on business optimisation as opposed to a transformation.”
Pete Redshaw, practice vice president at Gartner, said this attitude is dangerous.
»It underestimates the degree of change that digital technology will bring to the industry,” he said. »The future of the financial services industry is increasingly weightless, requiring few physical assets to establish or maintain a presence. That makes the industry especially vulnerable to disruption by digital competitors.”
In addition, emerging technologies (such as blockchain) offer transformational opportunities by creating trust between parties that do not know each other, without intermediary relationships that incumbent financial firms cultivate. Equally, peer-to-peer consensus algorithms can directly match borrowers to those with money, without requiring a bank to mediate.
»The biggest mistake financial services CIOs make is putting too much focus on technology,” said Mr Redshaw. »They should push their organisations for a more coherent response to digital business — it’s important to set the digital vision and destination first, then think about how to lead an organisation there.”
According to Gartner, of the 20 per cent of traditional firms that will remain as winners, three types will flourish:
- Power-law firms: Companies that own a digital platform will use its scale, low-cost infrastructure and the customer information it generates to create new services and enter new markets. Very few (5 per cent) of these winning heritage institutions have the ability to become power-law firms.
- Fintechs: Individual companies or pure-play/neobank subsidiaries will disaggregate traditional financial services in discrete product areas. They will participate in digital platforms, but will not own them. Less than 15 per cent of the winning group of traditional firms can convert themselves into or successfully spin off fintechs.
- Long-tail firms: The dramatically lower costs enabled by digital platforms will allow some traditional providers to act as service brokers. This is likely for large populations of poor and working-class people around the world that were not profitable customers previously. Simultaneously, they can act as concierge providers of bundled offerings to high-net-worth individuals. Around 80 per cent of winning traditional financial services providers can become long-tail firms.
The speed of digital transformation in financial services partly depends on regulation, as well as customer demographics and behaviours, which will vary from country to country. In some nations, conservative regulations will inhibit innovation, while other countries, such as Australia, Brazil, China, India and the UK, will use regulation to speed transformation.
Gartner clients can read more in the report: »Digitalization Will Make Most Heritage Financial Firms Irrelevant.”
Digitalisierung der Finanzbranche: Was Banken von Fintechs lernen müssen