Gartner: Geräte-Verkaufszahlen steigen – Ausgaben der Endnutzer sinken

  • Weltweit werden 2016 rund 2,4 Milliarden Geräte verkauft, Endverbraucher geben aber 0,5 Prozent weniger dafür aus.
  • Unternehmen werden Windows 10 schneller als bisherige Windows-Upgrades einführen; PC-Markt wird 2017 um vier Prozent wachsen.
  • Bis zum Jahresende werden 82 Prozent aller Mobiltelefone Smartphones sein.

illu db free pcWeltweit werden in diesem Jahr 2,4 Milliarden Geräte (PCs, Tablets, Ultramobiles und Mobiltelefone) verkauft werden, so eine aktuelle Prognose des IT Research- und Beratungsunternehmens Gartner. Das entspricht einem Anstieg um 1,9 Prozent im Vergleich zu 2015. Die Ausgaben der Endnutzer in konstanten US-Dollar sollen erstmals um ein halbes Prozent sinken.

»Es wird deutlich, dass Hersteller sich mit der Vermarktung ihrer Produkte nicht mehr nur auf die reifen und aufstrebenden Märkte konzentrieren können«, erklärt Ranjit Atwal, Research Director bei Gartner. »Aufgrund ökonomischer Schwankungen teilt sich der Markt in vier Bereiche auf: wirtschaftlich herausfordernde reife Märkte, wirtschaftlich stabile reife Märkte und dasselbe gilt noch einmal für die aufstrebenden Märkte. Russland und Brasilien gehören zu den wirtschaftlich herausfordernden aufstrebenden Märkten, während Indien stabil ist. Japan ist ein wirtschaftlich herausfordernder reifer Markt.«

Worldwide Device Shipments to Grow 1.9 Per Cent in 2016, While End-User Spending to Decline for the First Time

  • Businesses Will Adopt Windows 10 Faster Than Previous Windows Upgrades; PC Market to Increase 4 Per Cent in 2017
  • By End of 2016, 82 Per Cent of Mobile Phones Will Be Smartphones

Egham, UK, 20th January 2016 — Worldwide combined shipments of devices (PCs, tablets, ultramobiles and mobile phones) are expected to reach 2.4 billion units in 2016 , a 1.9 per cent increase from 2015, according to Gartner, Inc. (see Table 1). End-user spending in constant US dollars is expected to decline 0.5 per cent for the first time.

The device market in 2016 will continue to be impacted by country-level economic conditions. »It’s clear that vendors can no longer market their products with the mind of only targeting the mature and emerging markets,« said Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner. »Driven by economic variations the market is splitting into four categories: economically challenged mature markets, economically stable mature markets and the same for emerging markets. Russia and Brazil will fall into the category of economically challenged emerging markets while India will be stable, and Japan will belong to the economically challenged mature market.«


Worldwide Devices Shipments by Device Type, 2015-2018 (Millions of Units)

Device Type 2015 2016 2017 2018
Traditional PCs (Desk-Based and Notebook) 246 232 226 219
Ultramobiles (Premium) 45 55 74 92
PC Market 290 287 299 312
Ultramobiles (Basic and Utility) 196 195 196 198
Computing Devices Market 486 482 495 510
Mobile Phones 1,910 1,959 1,983 2,034
Total Devices Market 2,396 2,441 2,478 2,545

Note: The Ultramobile (Premium) category includes devices such as Microsoft’s Windows 8 Intel x86 products and Apple’s MacBook Air.

The Ultramobile (Basic and Utility Tablets) category includes devices such as, iPad, iPad mini, Samsung Galaxy Tab S 10.5, Nexus 7 and Acer Iconia Tab 8.

Source: Gartner (January 2016)


Businesses Will Adopt Windows 10 Earlier and Boost the PC Market in 2017

The global PC shipment market is expected to total 287 million units in 2016, a decline of 1 per cent year over year, but on pace to increase 4 per cent in 2017.

»Ultramobile premium devices are expected to drive the PC market forward with the move to Windows 10 and PCs built around Intel’s Skylake architecture,« said Mr Atwal. »We expect that businesses will deploy Windows 10 faster than with previous Windows upgrades.« Gartner’s global survey of 3,000 business respondents conducted in the fourth quarter of 2015 across six countries (Brazil, China, India, France, UK and US), found that nearly 80 per cent of businesses are expected to have completed the testing and evaluation of Windows 10 within 12 months and over 60 per cent within nine months.

»Given the shorter testing and evaluation period, many businesses could start to migrate by the end of 2016,« said Mr Atwal. »By the end of 2017, many business are looking to move as much as 40 per cent of their installed base onto new Windows 10 devices, mainly driven by the appeal hybrid touch-screen 2-1. This will be the catalyst for growth in the PC market in 2017.


Smartphone Market Moves to Basic Phones

Mobile phone shipments are on pace to increase 2.6 per cent in 2016. »Constant end-user spending on mobile phones is expected to increase by 1.2 per cent in 2016, but its growth will not be strong enough for overall end-user device spend to achieve growth in 2016,« said Roberta Cozza, research director at Gartner.

Smartphone shipments continued to drive growth, and Gartner estimates that, by the end of 2016, 82 per cent of mobile phones will be smartphones, up 12 per cent from 2015. »We are witnessing a shift to basic phones in the smartphone market,« Ms Cozza said. »Users are also opting to replace within the basic smartphone category without necessarily moving to high-end smartphones, especially in China and some other emerging markets.«

Local and Chinese brands are delivering more capable basic smartphones with appealing features at a lower price, which means that there is less of a need for users to upgrade to a premium smartphone. Instead, these more advanced and attractive basic smartphones fulfil user’s needs at a lower cost.

»At MWC 2016, a number of Android vendors will, as usual, release the next generation of their smartphone flagships,« said Ms Cozza. »We’ll hopefully see an increased focus on differentiation by enabling unique, but relevant experiences, expansion to new functionalities and better tie to key app and service ecosystems.«

More information is available to Gartner clients in the report »Forecast: PCs, Ultramobiles and Mobile Phones, Worldwide, 2012-2019, 4Q15 Update«.